re: ["I think Buffett missed the silver run all together..."]
We'll it looks like he made at least 50%+ on just the initial early 1998 delivery.
Jason Hommel had speculated that Buffett -- just recently supplied the physical Silver for the SLV ETF buy...implying to the 'bugs that he in essence bailed out the market...ie:
["Jason Hommel, Editor of “Silver Stock Report” previously told Resource Investor that “we just don’t know” where the silver will come from to back the ETF, and it is possible that Warren Buffett could be the supplier, which isn’t causing a shortage in the market."]
Further in the RI article:
["The CPM Group estimated earlier this year that Buffett still held somewhere between 100 and 129 million ounces."]
...if he held that size "earlier this year" -- then it appears the market swallowed up 100+ Million Ounces on this ride ?
stockcharts.com
Regardless of the speculation on when he sold -- the major point is this:
Berkshire & Buffett now publically confirm no more USD Short....and no more Silver.
Reports of Buffett buying Silver originated all thru the decline of 1996 into the public disclosure of 1997 -- so it looks like he accumulated a massive position from the mid $5's down to the eventual bottom of $4.08.
I would say that qualifies for being:
-- early
Quoting the Resource Investor Article:
["Buffett purchased an estimated 130 million ounces for delivery in 1998. In February 1998, the silver price jumped to a high of $7.81/oz, rallying 50% since mid-1997."]
I would say that +50% "V" spike would qualify for:
-- riding the right bull
And the "estimated" 130 to 190 million ounces he accumulated over time, certainly qualifies as:
-- large and/or levered
From the Berkshire Hathaway Annaual Meeting:
"According to the source, no sell price, date or addition data were given other than the announcement that the company no longer owned any silver."
So, I guess speculation, myth and conjecture will have to fill that void, but FWIW: Here's a chart reflecting the general consensus of Buffetts major entry/exits:
stockcharts.com
And lastly....Buffetts final words of wisdom vis a vis Silver & the recent run in commodities:
Buffett said he detected speculative participation in the recent run up in prices, particularly metals.
“What the wise man does at beginning, the fool does in the end... any asset that has a big move based on fundamentals will attract speculators...,” he said, according to sources.
“Something like copper is speculative on both sides of the market, and responding more to speculative than fundamental forces,” he added.
As I said earlier... "food for thought"
(and it sure beats DQ)
SOTB |
