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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: The Duke who wrote (4888)9/22/1997 10:57:00 AM
From: Todd Daniels   of 13594
 
>>You guys are leaving out the most obvious calculation. Subscirber
>>revenues=385M/quarter= 128M/month. Since paying subscribers all pay
>>roughly 20$/month, that works out to 6.4M paying subcribers.

That doesn't work for several reasons, most important of which is
that it doesn't reflect churn and trial/free time subs which
modulate the revenue stream *throughout the quarter*. Also AOL has
price plans other than $19.95 used by 10-20% of subs.

By contrast, average revenues per sub as reported by AOL reflect
the above.
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