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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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From: James M. Belin5/15/2006 11:56:09 PM
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To All:

An update on the Phoenix real estate market--Today I received a phone call from a friend who is a realtor. Unlike almost every other real estate person in town, this friend was extremely bearish on Phoenix real estate as of last summer.

He informed me that the Maricopa County MLS this morning showed over 38,000 homes for sale. Russ, he could not explain why your Zip.realty figure showed 45,000 homes for sale. For what it's worth, my friend considers the MLS figure to be more accurate. In any event, he said that the 38,000 home figure was the highest in Phoenix history!

He also informed me that the residential real estate market is deteriorating as we speak. Sellers are still so greedy. By insisting on the highest price, sellers risk having to hang on to their property for many more months while the market continues to drop. Given the appreciation in the Phoenix market that has occurred, sellers can still get out ahead if they price their homes realistically, but as each day goes by, the window of potential profit continues to close.

My friend's wife works in the office of a mortgage broker in town. He said that his wife told him to expect a lot of shocks in the market because in the next 2 months, the interest rates on a lot of adjustable rate mortgages in the Phoenix real estate market will be reset.

Jim
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