Soros: Happy Anniversary... re: "my strategies"
....how soon they forget:
Happy Anniversary to the 'bugs...from one year ago today:
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Message 21333392
To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (24952) 5/17/2005 6:11:46 PM
From: SOROS Read Replies (2) of 39277
With EVERY brokerage firm and ALL analysts except for the "loony" fringe like Sinclair saying "gold is dead", "sell all gold related issues", "gold couldn't even manage a decent rise after 911", "gold is not a hedge anymore", "all gold issues approaching at least 50% down now", etc. etc. etc., you'll be a genius if this IS the bottom and we don't get what almost EVERYONE is expecting -- a tiny bump followed by another wave of selling.
I really cannot remember when the sentiment on gold was so negative. People think you are insane to have any money in gold right now
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May 17th 2005....was "THE" bottom...after the 2nd near 100 point HUI "death march" shakeout...culminating by closing sub HUI 170 for just 2 trading days -- Friday, May 13th and Monday, May 16th.
Now how prescient was your post on May 17th ?
Yes, your take on the gold market was spot on at the time... you couldn't raise a pulse on the gold bugs' with 3 sets of defibrillators at the time.
Hulberts Digest had just reported an "all time low" of sentiment amongst Goldbugs Newsletter writers (whodathunkit?).
It was indeed -- "THE" bottom...occuring after the 2nd brutal shakeout that broke both the spirits and the pocketbooks of goldbugs....rather obviously so -- at the time.
I "played the players -- not the cards" ...and made a portfolio weighted re-entry -- weighted to "call options".... and we immediately got +40 points in a "V" bounce up off of that bottom in less than 20 trading days...
+40 Index points in 20 days -- nearly all levered to call options... do the math.
Then... as I always do...
I don't worry about "THE TOP" or, whether any given trade is going -- higher still...
I'm always looking for either -- better risk:reward opportunities, or deep value plays that give me less risk -- with equal, or better upside return potential.
And I found two:
My "swap" from Gold into Palladium gave me the last great value opp in metals.
Palladium went on to double in 6 months...and vastly outperformed gold over that timeframe.
Silver -- had become cheap relative it's historic valuation ratio to Gold...it also had the catalyst of the potential of the ETF on the horizon...it clearly had superior market dynamics and historically... has nearly always outperformed gold during the speculative & parabolic run ups... and it too... significantly outperformed gold over that time frame.
Soros, to answer your question vis a vis -- how often I am in cash?
That depends on how reckless the players get with their poker chips... I am playing THEM, more than I am playing the cards...although, the cards -- do matter.
Happy Anniversary...
How soon they forget...
SOTB
PS: The players are getting reckless once again...
Some things never change... |
