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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)
AMAT 249.89+3.1%Nov 26 3:59 PM EST
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To: trilobyte who wrote (18965)5/17/2006 1:53:07 PM
From: etchmeister  Read Replies (3) of 25522
 
Wall Street analysts seem uniformly negative regarding AMAT's near term prospects. That's a good sign.
Ultimately all capex projections will hinge on end demand;
last week Samsung provided a very positive outlook (the link was posted last week).
Even with pushout of Vista DRAM looks pretty good with mainstream DRAM up 37% since beginning of the year.
Most of the capex YTD went probably into flash and there was concern about overcapacity; however as endproducts continue to increase flash memory content this capacity is beeing soaked up.
For certain NAND flash densities contract pricing is up for a second time supporting that inventory correction is probably completed for NAND (that's what Samsung stated as well) and even in case of NAND flash capex would probably not roll over.
There is also more and more info available for investors -
for example TSMC has only $356 million on the books for capex in Q1 2006 - and Samsung's capex has been relatively linear with a total of 30% for semiconductor division for Q1 2006.
I'm pretty sure the analyst community is aware of this but they continue to pound on peak growthrates and slow down - however they will be forced on increase EPS.
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