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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 214.990.0%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST
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To: firthoffourth who wrote (197307)5/17/2006 2:40:50 PM
From: Sarmad Y. HermizRead Replies (2) of 275872
 
>> if Mr. de Vries is correct and they end up getting 5 times the number of die candidates as an 8 inch wafer at 90nm,

He is correct. That's just arithmetic.

>> they could cut their price in half and still double revenue.

Revenue would double, but it would not be profitable revenue.

The forgotten item here is that the 300 mm wafer costs 3x to 4x 200 mm wafer. Assembly and test cost per device is not reduced. making it dual core reduces the candidates by half. Someone has to pay for the fab capital costs, etc.... The most optimistic estimate is that with 300mm and 65nm, AMD (or intel) can maintain device ASP for DC at same level of SC, and make a slightly higher margin.

>> What do you suppose that would do to Intel's market share/ASPs/stock price?

It depends on how each of the two master utilization and yield.
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The above was neutral, and I won't get flamed for it. But next.

In looking at everything I could find, I don't see any evidence that AMD had more output after they opened Fab 36 in November than before. If someone can find that AMD unit output rose in q1 vs q4, please edify.

And as a pre-empt, please don't point out that "deferred revenue" rose by $50m. That only means that AMD's distribution channel inventory went up. It has nothing to do with increased output. And it is likely what the downgrade re-it was alluding to. Personally I think that was a bogus reason. But that's irrelevant to this issue.
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