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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (54404)5/18/2006 9:51:35 AM
From: PerspectiveRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
STEEL: I want to start pushing up the supply chain for construction materials. I had some time to think yesterday (went surfing) and something occured to me about the steel products companies. They are benefitting from two pieces of good luck:

1. supportive import tariffs
2. construction boom due to real estate bubble

So, I doubt that they suddenly tripped across some newfound global competitiveness. However, the companies are now priced like growth stocks, as if their situation is sustainable. Remove either prop and they are in serious trouble. And as we've noted many times here, prop number 2 is falling away rapidly. But, of course, construction activity lags the sales and selling prices of RE.

I suspect that many of these companies will suffer with the decline in RE. Here's where I need help: I want to identify which ones are most directly linked to domestic construction. I suspect MOST are. Because they are not likely competitive globally, they are probably only able to compete behind the protection of the US tariff. And I think the majority of domestic steel consumption is likely for high-rise construction and automobiles (look around you today - where do you see lots of steel?)

Any ideas the thread can provide would be greatly appreciated. Any novel ways of tracking these down would also be handy. I can only read so many 10Ks...

BC
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