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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 58.08

+0.9%

Dec 11 3:59 PM EST

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To: former_pgs who wrote (20072)	5/18/2006 2:52:51 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) of 52153

only new news the DMB would be receiving in the interim would be bad news (deaths / toxicity) But of course those deaths could have occurred in the control arm instead of in the drug arm. I guess my point comes down to the notion that it isn't urgent to stop a trial because you have met a futility analysis. A futility analysis says that the chance of the drug being statistically superior is remote. That's a long way from the drug being clearly enough inferior to require stopping the trial urgently. If I can attempt to draw a picture: A.....B.....C.....D A= drug is statistically clearly inferior (stop trial) B= trial is futile (stop trial) C= drug is superior at say p<.05 (continue trial) D= drug is clearly superior (stop trial) We know that recently the results were between B and D. That likely means they could not have been close to A. We now can infer from the recent announcement that the results are close to A or close to D. I'm inferring that this means that "close to D" is more likely. (I'm assuming here that if the interim look was close to "B" they wouldn't ask for an expedited re-look. I could easily be wrong about that). Peter

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