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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 56.87

-2.3%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: former_pgs who wrote (20072)	5/18/2006 4:27:16 PM
From: former_pgs	Read Replies (2) of 52153

One more consideration for the satraplatin trial: The first interim analysis was at 354 PFS events. Since PFS precedes survival, it makes sense that there are few (far fewer, imo) survival events that have accrued. I think it stands to reason that any look at survival would be inherently weaker statistically. I think it is also a safe assumption that the DMB would not consider stopping the trial for success at such an early time if the survival test simply met p < 0.05. I'd have to guess that they'd have a stricter criteria to prematurely stop this trial for survival (p < 0.01 or better?). So if PFS didn't meet p < 0.005 at the interim, and the survival analysis would not be as statistically powerful as the PFS analysis, could the DMB really be thinking that they have a reasonable shot at reaching p < 0.01 or better? I'm thinking it rather unlikely. But who knows. Given this thread, it'll now be fun to see what happens. Disclosure: I got phrm in the charity portfolio (and i think i'm the only one). I'm rooting for improved survival at this look :-)

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