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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 246.28

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Feb 2 3:59 PM EST

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From: gzubeck	5/19/2006 1:12:47 AM
	of 275872

Thought this was a very good blog article by Rahul Sood of Voodo PC.... So here are my concerns about the roadmap – generally speaking: It seems to me that Intel’s new processors are heavily cache dependant. That being said, it would normally take a great deal of silicon to produce a processor with 4 megabytes of cache. You would think this could limit their production output – but then there’s another issue. If they are able to produce the processors there’s the issue of yield. When you start building such a complex processor with a large amount of cache the yields will probably come down significantly. Lastly, by combining a new process with blistering new technology, and you cover it across multiple platforms/product lines it goes back to the analogy that a wise man once said to me: “You can’t make a baby in one month with nine wives”. I cite Core Duo as an example of a product that experienced delays to get to the channel. I now see a few channel players starting to launch Core Duo notebooks with anticipation to receive new platform parts sometime near the end of May. That’s a far cry from Apple being able to launch Core Duo in January… I must say that Intel was more than eager to get us samples many weeks ago but our challenge was trying to work with the ODMs on platforms. They were lacking chipsets to produce platforms so we could test the sample processors that Intel wanted to provide - it’s like a vicious cycle. Though this doesn’t seem to bode well if they are trying to eat up share from their competitor, it may not be their goal. Even if they win in performance they may not be able to produce enough to keep the entire market satisfied. Now I could be wrong, and I invite anyone from Intel to post on here, anonymous comments are welcome. I would like to hear your take on yields and potential production issues. Either way I think it’s probably a good strategy for Intel to drop their new procs in limited production in order to gain some “halo effect” across the entire product line. In the meantime, it looks more and more feasible that AMD will continue to grow strong regardless of Intel’s performance comeback. The fact is the momentum is already there, and in some cases the writing is on the wall. This isn’t necessarily bad for Intel; in fact I would venture to guess it’s good for them because it will keep both companies focused on innovation. On another crazier note I think AMD will probably announce a couple of surprise OEM deals this year. It seems like the next logical step to me based on a number of facts which I may get into later. Let’s just say I think Toshiba, Sony, and Dell are still in the running to spread their wings a little and bring some green into their lives. posted by Rahul Sood @ Thursday, April 27, 2006 voodoopc.blogspot.com

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