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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: UncleBigs who wrote (61465)5/19/2006 2:09:02 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
Having lived through a few real estate cycles, there is no question that real estate has its up and downs -- and it can take ten years to correct these markets. Having said that, there is as yet no evidence of a "crash". There is evidence that those who are rampant speculators or just plain dumb are going to get burned. There is evidence that prices will decline, and in some markets the losses are most likely going to be substantial. But your view goes beyond anything grounded in current realities and is itself highly speculative. If by a crash you mean drops on the order of 20% to 50% depending on the market, this can be absorbed. But if by crash you mean widespread drops in excess of 50%, you are merely engaging in your own form of hyperbole at this point.

The big vulnerability we face is on the dollar.
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