Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 252.50

+1.1%

11:08 AM EST

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To: dougSF30 who wrote (198026)	5/19/2006 8:12:21 PM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (2) of 275872

Doug: You fail to comprehend anything. That graph did not enumerate against shipping volumes but, mix. Sales of Opterons in the 2S space is growing fast. That is Intel's motivation to launch Woodcrest ASAP. The problem is in the details and you consistently fail to take into account such a thing as lead times. It takes time for things to be tested and validated. In your view it doesn't. When something has a clear performance advantage, and I have not seen any NGA server benchmarks to show that, all customers will buy is the faster one as soon as it comes out. Let's look at history. As soon as Opteron came out, all servers should have switched to Opteron because it was ahead in performance by all accounts. It definitely was ahead of Athlon MP. Yet, Athlon MP outsold Opteron for a few quarters after launch. Some were even sold 18 months later. It took time for Opteron to go through the test, qualify, validate and acceptance cycle. The same thing happens for all major core and platform changes for any server CPU maker including IBM, the quintescential big iron maker. In the current situation, 2S Xeons sales are dropping because they don't fly against the proven Opteron. The current 2S Xeon DPs are too hot, slow and expensive. Their share is going down. But it didn't get cut off like a knife. Shares rise and fall slowly in the beginning. Only at the end can share rise and fall dramatically typically due to being EOL'd. All that chart says is that Intel expects volume to go down in a hurry for 2S Xeon servers. Else they would have used volume as the y axis and not mix. That is the standard way to show the changing mix. You use mix when the volumes are going to be terrible. The "light at the end of the tunnel" could be an on coming freight train. The diesel horn gives that version more credibility. The problem is that you seem to be deaf. Pete

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