From another thread-
That was Refreshing
by: michaelwanchena (55/M/Minnesota) 05/21/06 10:01 am
Msg: 244384 of 244389
FWIW:
Last week's action, especially Friday, was refreshing, cleaning out a lot of nervous-nellie shares. A friend of mine asked me to explain this to him, and this is how I replied:
Many investors use what's called a stop-loss limit order. It does exactly what it says: for example, with IVAN, you make your purchase, and establish your cost basis. Coincidental with the purchase (or anytime thereafter) you also place a sell order at your chosen point beneath that price. Should the stock fall, your shares will automatically be sold at your stop-loss price, effectively limiting your loss on the transaction. A trailing stop-loss is the same thing, except, as your IVAN increases in value, your stop-loss moves up, proportionally trailing the share price. I've never used a stop-loss order in my life: Friday's IVAN action is precisely why.
An old investment adage goes: "Don't think. Look."
Look at IVAN's simple, 1-day chart from Friday: finance.yahoo.com
What the chart says - no interpretation here - is that the first ninety minutes of the trading session the shares were down on a percentage basis, dramatically - on high volume, and the remainder of the day the shares marched upward on dinky volume. There was one, anxious, buyer at days end (see the 150,000 share purchase spike in the last half hour of trading).
That's what the chart says.
The five day chart may be even more helpful IN 'seeing' this: finance.yahoo.com
Also, just for giggles and to add technical evidence of strength: notice how, on the six-month chart, the stock tested, exactly, it's 200-day moving average, a PERFECT test: finance.yahoo.com
Now, take our technical information, apply it to the fundamentals - the numbers and narrative - of the stock, and reflect.
The market 'knows' these shares are headed much higher: market makers have kept this thing in check for a few months now, and the final ticks of the launch clock can be heard. The most important test of IVAN's technology is coming up (probably this week, maybe next). A successful test of the VTB's ensures (for the viewing public and due diligence folks at all major oil companies) that RTP will work, technically and financially, on virtually ANY heavy oil deposit, anywhere in the world.
NOW, and THIS IS KEY:
If a couple of schlemiels like you and I know this, so does the rest of the world.
What the market makers did this week was take advantage of the general sell-off in equities, walk IVAN down a bit, and hit, finally, just under $2.50, the stop loss orders. This is where it gets cute. Think Domino Theory, think avalanche. One decent sized stop-loss order can trigger, if the market makers permit, an avalanche of selling, taking out all the stop-loss orders along the way, and, further, scaring other investors out of their shares. When the selling dries up (for IVAN on Friday that was at about $2.15), and now loaded with new, cheap, shares, up they take it.
Classic action.
Hope this helps,
[Yahoo]
Re: GOOD NEWS on IVAN coming soon
by: vinianin (81/,)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 05/21/06 11:01 am
Msg: 244387 of 244389
Tgrafa:
The following test runs/times are based on May 10 CC:
High quality (recycle) Cal. VTB's run - end of May. Data will be used for market studies which are pending with Aera Energy LLC.
High quality Cal. VTB's, multiple-day run - early June. Will provide further engineering data for commercial designs that are underway.
Will also measure sulfure capture and pollution contol.
Athabasca bitumen, multiple-day run - mid to late June??? This is a technical run designed by CP. Will provide data for CP Due Dilligence, and additionally for engineering designs for Athabasca tar-sands applications.
It was also stated by Leon Daniels that the Yowlumne well results will be announced within two weeks, which means this next week.
Cheers longs, IVAN is gaining momentum.
Re: GOOD NEWS on IVAN coming soon
by: tgrafa (M/Texas) 05/20/06 12:18 am
Msg: 244358 of 244389
EPVP: I want to try to temper the expectations of some on this board on the upcoming test. Ivanhoe is doing two heavy oil runs before the bitumen comes up. After the first run they will fine tune the process before the second heavy oil run. If those go as planned, then the bitumen will be run - Ivanhoe is not going to take the chance of screwing up the bitumen run - it cost ConocoPhillips too much to get it shipped down. After the bitumen, Ivanhoe is considering doing a 1 week extended run on Aera's crude. Investor relations told me to expect the end of July before the test are completed. Hopefully we will get two or three news releases over this two month period.
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