Conoco (COC) - The biggest U.S. IPO ever Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Conoco (COC) - The biggest U.S. IPO ever

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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (115)	5/21/2006 11:33:41 PM
From: aerosappy	of 123

McDep on COP [4/27/06] Summary and Recommendation Buy-recommended ConocoPhillips (COP) offers 41% appreciation potential to estimated net present value of $95 a share. That estimate appears low in a correlation of present value with adjusted reserve life and next twelve months cash flow taking account of first quarter 2006 results reported on April 26. The estimate also presumes a long-term oil price of $50 a barrel. Since COP is priced less than our estimate, at a McDep Ratio of 0.78, the stock appears priced for a long-term oil price of about $39 a barrel. Meanwhile the futures price for oil delivered over the next six years continues in a multi-year uptrend with the current quote at $72. As a result of the widening price gap, we may soon be raising our estimates. Present value is concentrated about half on oil, and a quarter each on natural gas and downstream. mcdep.com

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