Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 223.95

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Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (19024)	5/22/2006 1:12:28 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (3) of 25522

Brian, I can think back to the fall of 1998, as I watched too many semi companies sell off as the industry fundamentals were dramatically improving. When we see this type of environment, we need to wait for a washout. Nothing wrong with dipping the toe in the water but one should have excess cash on hand in anticipation of a great buying opportunity. If we get another industry price cycle low this year, it should be one of those opportunities to buy low and get handsome profits. As I see it, there are 2 main catalysts for turning these washouts into maximized profits. One, waiting for excessive pessimism to permeate the entire industry, without exceptions, and then carefully choosing companies who's underlying fundamentals have been improving while the stock price dropped. This is the way to "buy the bottom" but it is also the more difficult of the 2 options. Trying to pick the bottom will be troublesome at best. Two, waiting until the washout has reversed and that all the stocks which have been falling like knives are rising together. This is the safer approach. Both approaches take patience, timing and dry powder. jmo to

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