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Non-Tech : The Woodshed
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To: SwampDogg who wrote (39619)5/23/2006 9:34:07 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (1) of 60921
 
(edit) I would feel much better about PMs if three things were true:

1) They hadn't lagged all the way up from $620 to $730 gold
2) If PMs or gold were already starting to trade opposite the S&P/Dow
3) If everything wasn't going down together (commodities, emerging markets, foreign markets, Dollar, S&P, and Naz).

My posts are not as bearish as they may seem. I'm being very ST cautious yes, but there's a difference. I don't think new lows are automatic. Nor do I think 575 gold is likely to be breached again and 620 may well be it for downside. I have more confidence than ever that $1,000 will be smashed likely in 2008 or even before. If the gen markets manage to close near the highs and they go up considerably where it looks like it's a bottom tomorrow I'll likely buy back some traders. I'm really just playing the odds ST here. I think it's more likely that things get banged up a bit more before finding a good tradeable bottom.

Gold has been very impressive on this run as has silver. It's the underlying stocks that haven't done much.

This decline took me somewhat by surprise. I wasn't expecting a straight shot down to 310 from 400. To me that says PMs need to base for a while before we have a no-brainer risk/reward entry. I made some early entries trying to bottom fish, but made up for it by buying more near the lows. Having escaped w/all my fingers I'm probably more cautious than I would have been had I simply waited. Also, had the general markets stayed strong most of the day and finished on the highs I'd probably still have 1/2 or more of my traders from the bottom.
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