2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 375.93

-1.8%

Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Moominoid who wrote (6730)	5/24/2006 6:44:11 PM
From: RJA_	Read Replies (1) of 217820

Hi Moomin -- Re the Canadian Oil Income Trusts -- The one I have looked most closely at (ARC Energy) a year or so ago appears to be structured so you have claim on the income. You really dont own any asset other than that. What you are buying is cash flow from an underlying hard asset. The problem I have with them is that they appear to be open ended -- they can issue more shares at any time, and thus dilute your interest. Its more than doubled since I've had it, + paying 8% - 20% dividend (depending on the basis of the original purchase...) so I have no complaints. They also have a decent reserve life 10 - 12 years... and a bunch of additional reserves not counted in that (that require some infrastructure to be put in place for recovery, which they intend to do). So you get the stock play, the dividend, the currency play, and the increase in asset value over time. Not bad IMHO. I'm also into ERF, which trades locally (cheaper to trade). Also good reserve life and dividend. Re Oil Sands: Reserve life is 30 yrs plus. That is the kicker, and why Pickens likes them. However, dividend actually calculates out to 3% or so... which is why (among other reasons) I didnt buy it at $35... now it has split 5 ways, and last time I looked was $35 or so... (one advantage of multiple personality disorder is that you can curse yourself for not buying it, but agree perfectly with the logic behind that decision at the time... while making the same decision again currently...<unprintable explitive>). Re Gold: Richard Russel has a good article here: 321gold.com with a very interesting point and figure chart, which I read to indicate GLD may get down to $550 - $555 - $560 range which I view as the second pass at the gold ring (no pun intended). I would prefer to buy at $495 but thats not how I read the chart (sigh!). Best wishes!! RJA

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