G, I got "lucky" and found the "key" to posting charts.<g>
The selloff in the past few days has been really severe. Looking at the chart you just posted, the NDX was holding up pretty well until 5/8 when it decided to head South. Prior to that, there wasn't much change in the NDX while the bpNDX decided to go South, starting in early January until early May, when it went from about 73 to 53. Then the downtrend accelerated in concert with the NDX over the past 2 to 3 weeks.
At 32, the bpNDX is nearing the low point on the chart of 25 set in early August of 04. Then in 4.5 months it rebounded to 80 by the end of 04. I don't know if we can expect that kind of action now - circumstances are different - but I think we are nearing the point at which we get a turn around and some relief from the last few weeks. It will be interesting to see what happens. Note that at this low bpNDX level, previous turn arounds happened rather quickly - see Mar 04, May 04, Aug 04, Apr 05, Oct 05 - and now May 06?
The "market" mood is very negative right now, but the companies we follow are doing well, much better than in 04 and 05. We have a real disconnect between present market direction and projected sales of semiconductors for 06, 07 and 08.
Don |
