re: ["...now about this 100 point premise"]
hubris33 re:
["Are all 100 point shakeouts equal?]
No, like heart attacks -- all "shakeouts" are not equal...also equally so -- there is no such thing as a "good" heart attack, or a "good" shakeout.
Prudent people do their best to avoid both...
My main point was that this was an easy call...and sadly, for the "herd" -- this time, all 100 points occured in just 6 trading days:
The morale to this story?
Pigs got Fat, Hogs got Slaughtered
...and some things never change."
I'm sorry, but it matters not whether this "heart attack" is mild, moderate, or life threatening with further complications yet to come... by any other name -- it's still a heart attack...and shouldn't have been all that difficult to avoid.
Paradigm Shift:
-- from Risk ... to risk aversion.
-- from a debt & consumption orgy ....to a savings & conservation mode.
-- from a Bush Cowboy Cartel "transfer of wealth" to a coming 2008 "re-distribution of wealth."
The market always wakes up to "change" sooner, or later.
Savvy traders always anticipate that change.
They lead the market (and it's players) and do not follow the market (and it's players).
While all the speculators and hot money rush to the "trade du jour" like gnats to a streetlight...other trades always exist, undiscovered, under-appreciated and under-priced -- in the shadows.
Those that find them early and leverage them -- profit greatly, at significantly less risk.
Those other trades were:
-- Gold vs. Oil from late 2000 thru 2005
-- Palladium, Silver & other PM's vs. Gold from the post Katrina 2005 speculative orgy to this recent correction.
-- Yet another exists today...
We've had 3 100 point shakeout's in the HUI to date since the begining of this cycle in late 2000.
Very, very few traders have avoided all 3 of them...and fewer yet -- have correctly traded out in front of the market (and it's gnat-like players) and made timely swaps from Oil to Gold and from Gold to other PM's.
I remain one of them...and it's all safely in the bank.
SliderOnTheBlack`
"Play the Players -- Not the Cards"
--Doyle "Texas Dolly" Brunson
PS: Do you know why Exxon is still sitting on $30 Billion+ in Cash?
Sometimes the truth can only be found by asking the right question vs. searching for the right answer.
...always follow the money -- even when it isn't moving ~ |
