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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse

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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (4194)	5/25/2006 10:32:59 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) of 24210

A copy of a late post from yesterday's Drumbeat. I think it is worthy of further discussion. -------------------- I took your analysis a step further, in part as a response to GW and in part as a response to a likely decline in a major economic input. Couple electrification with MUCH higher efficiency, Diesel 18 wheelers take 8 times as much fuel as diesel railroads to move a ton-mile (gross #s from 2002). An electric RR (with regenerative braking) uses about 1/3 the non-oil energy of a diesel RR. Shifting half the freight ton-miles from 18 wheelers to electric RR in a decade seems like a workable goal. Growing RR freight by 9%-11% per year is doable. Russian rates of electrification of existing RRs are doable and probably twice as fast. Electric Urban Rail creates it's own ridership over time. It alters the urban form away from sprawl with "natural" market forces. It's called TOD (Transit Orientated Development). As with freight RRs, major savings directly. Perhaps 1/12th the energy (non-oil) to commute by Light Rail than by car/SUV. But double that savings with changes in urban development. The electricity demands to cut US Oil concumption by 10% are likely less than 2% of our total electricity used. Small enough to be "created" by slightly better conservation or new wind turbines. OTOH, plug in hybrids have no associated efficiency gains, other than a shift to smaller cars. Batteries lose energy when stored and add weight to move around. Plug-in hybrids are a "half measure" and they should be, IMO, a minor supplement to a major thrust for electric RRs and MUCH more Urban Rail, Plug-in hybrids, because they are not a significant step up in efficiency, are less sustainable and this will lead to further problems in a generation. We will soon be engaged in a race between the decling volumes of oil that we can afford and our demand for oil while maintaining a reasonable level (severe recession ?) of economic activity. Gains of 24:1 are likely to be much more important than 3:2 and 2:1 gains. AlanfromBigEasy on Thursday May 25, 2006 at 9:37 AM EST theoildrum.com

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