Chip equipment sales to drop 3% in 2006, says forecast
(since financial pundits rely on forecast pundists it looks to me certain people where asleep at the wheel - my guess a good portion is and has been yelling peak - very frustrating because they are still backed up by some money; it also shows how incredible dynamic the industry is)
To: etchmeister who wrote (16866) 12/16/2005 9:19:41 AM
From: Brian Read Replies (1) of 19115
Chip equipment sales to drop 3% in 2006, says forecast
Peter Clarke
EE Times
(12/16/2005 6:28 AM EST)
LONDON — Sales of chip-making equipment are set to decline 3.0 percent in 2006 compared with 2005, on top of a 9.6 percent drop in 2005, according to market forecast company The Information Network.
Thereafter the market for semiconductor equipment is set to improve with an annual increase of 23.5 percent in 2007 and 31.0 percent in 2008, the firm said.
However, the market is in decline at present with orders for chipmaking equipment set to be down 19 percent in Q4 2005 compared with Q4 2004. At the same time revenue from chipmaking equipment sales is set to be down 13 percent sequentially from Q3 2005, according to The Information Network (New Tripoli, Pennsylvania).
The forecasting company added that in 2000, less than 20 percent of tools sold were for 300-mm diameter wafers, and more than 95 percent of the installed base of equipment was geared to 200-mm diameter wafers. In 2004 60 percent of tools were for 300-mm wafers and in 2005 70 percent, the company asserted.
(let's hope this is true - IMHO t should be driver because this equipment has now almost 4 technology nodes (18 months/node) on it's back and we are past cost crossover point putting pressure on 200 mm fab)
Capacity utilization is dropping as semiconductor manufacturers bring equipment into production at 16 300-mm wafer fabs built in 2005 and this is causing manufacturers to defer further purchases, the forecast firm said.
“The move to 450-mm, dictated in the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) for wafer production in 2012, should be welcomed by semiconductor manufacturers, provided a champion can be found to fund the transition. Intel backed the conversion to 150-mm wafers and IBM supported the 200-mm wafer conversion, but the onus of 300-mm conversion was on the equipment vendors themselves. We suspect that equipment vendors will steer clear of driving the transition to 450-mm, not wanting to shoot themselves in the foot, and leaving the burden to perhaps Intel,” said Robert Castellano, president of The Information Network. |
