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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: mishedlo who wrote (51757)5/26/2006 7:49:51 AM
From: Earlie  Read Replies (2) of 116555
 
Mish:

Couldn't agree more with his comments.

Aside from the now fully evident US real estate bubble implosion (getting underway at a subdivision near you), the list of "worrisome" items grows longer:

employment.... we are already seeing the first of what will likely be a torrent of lay-offs in the construction, real estate agent and mortgage lending trades (which provided the replacement jobs when manufacturing employment took its 3.5 million job hit).

consumer pull-back.... happening even as we speak, this nasty wave will also intensify as more "refi-your-home" ATMs shut down

pension fund meltdown.... the boomers are exhibiting "perfect timing" as they enter their retirement years in large numbers, just as their pension plans hit empty. This is a gigantic problem that few care to discuss but it "ain't goin' away".

dollar meltdown..... this is now underway and it is difficult to see how it can be reversed. Yes, it may be mildly positive for the trade deficit but if the world decides that it is no longer comfortable funding an out-of-control debt junkie, the implications for US stocks and bonds are ugly. Global dollar shucking looks to be underway.

energy costs.... as they say in the movies, there is good news and there is bad news. The good news is that energy costs will fall in concert with the global slowdown that is getting underway. The bad news is that the positive impact this could have on economic activity may well be "too little, too late", especially if unemployment gets into a spiral dive.

Best,
Earlie
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