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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: mishedlo who wrote (62109)5/28/2006 9:25:48 AM
From: Tommaso  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
By most standards, a return of house prices to what they were five years ago would be a major collapse of a major bubble, at least in many parts of the United States.

But that need not mean a decline in commodity prices--certainly not a decline as measured in U. S. dollars.

Bankruptcies, foreclosures, failures of financial institutions,job losses, and a decline into poverty of millions of families--as in the Great Depression--all seem likely. What does not seem likely, to me, is a general decline in consumer prices and commodity prices as occurred in the 1930s. I think that a more vicious replay of conditions of the early 1970s seems likely--somewhat as the 1930s were a more vicious replay of the intermittent economic contractions of the period 1870 to 1921.
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