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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 211.89

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10:28 AM EST

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To: dougSF30 who wrote (199121)	5/28/2006 2:09:59 PM
From: TechieGuy-alt	Read Replies (1) of 275872

The thinking that Intel has better performing chips (even 3 speed grades) means that AMD is toast as was in traditional times is thinking of traditional times. There are the following issues with this line of reason: 1. The Mhz wars are dead- no more pushing the clock frequency (at least by the leader) due to Watt/Performance metrics that everyone is pushing. This means that any waterfall of speed grades cannot be rapidly pushed down towards the low end by introing higher and higher clocks at the high end- witness Core stuck at 1 speed grade above intro 5 months into launch! 2. 80+% of the market is at "main stream" performance products. Which means that Intel's ASP's are dictated by what the market will support. Just having higher performing products will not mean that the market will suddenly start paying (say) > $1K for Intel computers whereas currently (say) the ASP for same desktops are ~$850. 3. AMD now has the capacity to supply in quantity in all 3 segmens of the market. The back of the monopoly is broken. It's just going to be a matter of time before it's gone completely. There is no way the OEM's are going to allow Intel to dominate once again- especially with a techanically capably AMD. Remember the "AMD does not have a hope and a prayer" to establish their own socket standard? (along with "Roadkill" etc.) When was the last time you heard that? AMD has arrived and the market share #'s will continue to adjust to reflect that reality. If you think that Intel's temporary 8-12 month (purpoted) lead justifies a 80/20 reveune split in this market as an equilibrium- you really need to re-examine the basis of your hypothesis again. Sometimes one needs to step back from the trees (the current leaked benchmarks) and look at the forest (this market is headed towards a more even revenue split- and there is nothing that Intel can do to stop it over the next 3-5 years). TG

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