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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 670.92

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Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: Logain Ablar who wrote (43352)	5/28/2006 4:20:27 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 67756

Hi Tim, I agree with your assessment of industry needing a lower dollar in order to compete. I am just concerned that US economy has really been driven by domestic consumption the last few years. Greenspan lowered rates in order to prevent a melt down of the economy. The low interest rates drove domestic spending with a corresponding wealth effect being created in real estate. But now that interest rates are rising and the rise in real estate prices are moderating it will be interesting to see how long the demand side of the equation will continue to be strong. At some point people are going to feel less secure and start saving more and paying down consumer debt. At that point a lot of the demand for consumer good and services will start to dry up. The ripple effect is frightening to think about though as a corresponding slow down in the hyper growth economy of China will occur as US demand weakens for their good. Given that a large portion of the GDP growth in the world is due to China and India, you can see the impact on commodities and just overall consumer good.

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