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Strategies & Market Trends : FOLLOW THE GENERALS
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To: Jim Battaglia who wrote (43)5/28/2006 9:28:46 PM
From: Jim Battaglia  Read Replies (1) of 104
 
Henry To

Probability now favors a bounce in the short-term - given that the market is oversold, but there is no question that the market is now mired in an intermediate-term downtrend. The following three-year chart (courtesy of Decisionpoint.com) showing the NYSE McClellan Oscillator and the McClellan Summation Index tells the story:



As mentioned on the above chart, the daily NYSE McClellan Oscillator touched a very oversold level of negative 230 last Thursday - an oversold level which hasn't been since October of last year. This suggests at least a bounce in the very short-run. At the same time, however, the NYSE McClellan Summation Index (which is more of an intermediate technical indicator) is still only at 633.04 - which is nowhere close to the oversold levels we saw in either April or October of last year. To top it all off, the fact that the NYSE McClellan Summation Index has been making lower highs since the end of 2003 further suggests that this cyclical bull market is now in the midst of ending.
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