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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 214.11+3.9%Nov 26 3:59 PM EST
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To: dougSF30 who wrote (199144)5/29/2006 11:41:50 AM
From: TechieGuy-altRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
ME:
and look at the forest (this market is headed towards a more even revenue split- and there is nothing that Intel can do to stop it over the next 3-5 years)

You:
That statement is ridiculous on its face. Suppose Intel Core2 performance were, for sake of argument, DOUBLE the performance of AMD parts. You think the market would still head to a more even revenue split? I assume not, unless you're nuts.


You would be correct if that was an enduring "fact" rather than a snapshot in time.

In the old days where no one had confidence in AMD's technical and manufacturing abilities you would be correct. HOWEVER today no one has ANY doubts as to AMD's technical abilities and to a large extent their latest Dresden based manufacturing abilities.

So- in effect you may have a real world situation where Intel is ~20% fast on average for ~6-12 months and then AMD catches up.

Also don't forget the fact that Intel's "Core" architecture is very very cache dependent. Compared to performance/sq mm- it s very inefficient compared to AMD's architecture.

Given that- the two horse race becomes even more compelling as manufacturing capacity is king in gaining revenue share.

With $2B+ in the bank and $250M+ free cash flow/Q (at least for one more Q- possibly for at least 2 more Q's), cash for fabs should not be an issue.

The real world sitiation is that this market is headed to a more even split.

TG
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