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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 289.38

-3.4%

Nov 13 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (30727)	5/30/2006 10:11:04 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 95415

Hi Don, Well here we go again. We've got a glut,but Capex is being evenly built out with out peaks or valleys by almost all flash makers (while pricing remains firm). Inventory gluts are accordingly much more manageable and recover much more quickly. Vista is delayed one quarter and rumors fly about another,while Mr Softee says it'll be out in January. Looks to me like we're on a verge of a very long awaited upgrade cycle and memory will be certainly short if Microsofts past upgrade are any indication (they suck up the need for memory. Nand memory seems to be more associated with consumer devices that just get cheaper with more capabilities- sounds like a memory eater to me? I have a new Treo 700 and cannot tell you how long I've wanted to get quotes while driving down the road - it is too cool. I've dreamt of this for decades. I LOVE IT !! These new innovations will surely propel the semi's into huge growth within the next 18 -24 months.IMO I recall Lam's December dip below its 50 dma - just as a broker said orders would be light.Nice 50% move up since then.GG stockcharts.com That being said,Cohu on a record high backlog has dipped below itsJune 05 low of 17.60ish. stockcharts.com Semi's are famous for severe dips and Cohu like Lam has had a nice runup and appeared to be leading. Lam's fundamentals have been superior and screaming cycle top has worked in the past. ADX is going the wrong way and that suggests more down. I still say we need big cap leadership before the smaller niche success stories are safe buy the dips. If what happened to Cohu applies to Lam it will test 25-26. Not a time to be overweight and the selling should have been done back when Macd made a new high on a lesser value. Those are about as famopus a last words as I've ever had.GG For what its worth - I'd wait for the SAR reversal indicator to violate below the 50 day ma before I'd panic and an "Add To" at 40.57 might be good for a pop. BWDIK Bob I still think Cohu will give me a second retest bottom as it acts relatively well for a while and then goes through a fast price decline that scares a lot of people out of their position. Wondering if the new Treasury Secretary has given Wall Street a shocker by taking on the job.It would be wake up call to the shorts. If they can manufacture a final shake out - one in which their shorts need to finally be covered,or it will be time for a squeeze of the newbie shorts,who didn't get the after hours phone call. Just dreaming,but W just got wall street in his camp - that has at least subtle callings.IMO Bob P.S. interesting how the SOX didn't hit a new low in today's washout?

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