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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (187914)6/1/2006 12:46:16 PM
From: one_less  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
Good analysis.

I think it is possible to get the malitias to lay down their arms but that is only one step in the direction of stability and leaves many things as tentative.

For example, Al-Sadr's Mehdi Army has been convinced to lay down their arms more than once. The problem is this particular group will never agree to disban, and their influence is spreading. I have been predicting for a couple of years, they will become a multi-national organization that rises to superpower status over time. In some sense they have already started. Even when they lay down their arms, Al-Sadr maintains their right to continued existence. He is supported by the Mullahs and is unopposed in that declaration from other entities. Even the Sunni spokespersons who hate him personally are not willing to denounce the ideology of the Mehdi Army. Al-Sadr is also known to be maintaining a complete shadow government in the private sector that is supported by people in legitimate governmental positions.
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