That is a good point, the cost structure will matter. Results also matter, especailly when the results are different - think comparing Lenovo-ThinkPad and Google. BTW, Google has worked very hard to keep their costs down, building their own generic computers, doing hard negotiation and buying soem fiber optic capacity, etc.
I think we have assymetric competition and cooperation.
I expect we will see costs change somewhat over time. Switzerland, Japan, Sweden, Germany, the UK, France, Hong Kong and the US have been the high cost producers for a long time and have adapted with varying success.
Most likely, the long term determinate of of success will be "national will", a willingness to take certain risks, a willingness to deal with difficult political issues, freedom to change and innovate, etc.
Today, China would be score highest on those criteria, Old Europe the lowest, the US on the low side.
I expect that many emerging economies will be choosing sides - likely with India, Venezuela, Bolivia choosing the wrong side for the most part.
Most of Eastern Europe, Brazil, Chile, some Asian tigers and maybe Argentina going in the right direction.
Russia and Japan are mysteries, and Mexico may be in play at some point.
I expect that in a dozen years various nations will change direction. I expect at least one of the 3 European nations - UK, France, and Germany - will choose a more favorable direction. I expect France, since they have large, visible problems and an unhappy population. |
