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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: ild who wrote (62543)6/2/2006 5:23:36 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
a reported 'real GDP growth' of 3% today translates into ZERO growth, which means that any given quarter where growth is reported to be below 3% is in reality an economic contraction.

i think we could just look at other proxies to GDP growth. if oil consumption is growing, then the economy is growing. oil consumption is in fact still growing (although much more slowly than declared GDP, which is to be expected even if GDP stats are not lies as per my post on relation btw gdp/CL consumption). when oil consumption stops growing, and perhaps contracts, then we will have a real-time indicator that the economy is contracting.
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