Etch, Gottfried's chart(s) are based on 3 month rolling averages as put forth by SIA each month. SIA also releases tabular data in both formats, one format is the 3 month rolling average and the other format is the actuals on a monthly basis.
Since Gottfried has been plotting the 3 month rolling average data, I have been keeping tables of the actual monthly data, and posting this data each month. Before we look at this year's data, the following is a recap of the 2004 versus the 2003 sales.
- ACTUAL MONTHLY SALES(1,000s)
- PCT
- 2003 2004 DIFF CHG
Jan 10940608 13825806 2885198 26.4
Feb 11339477 15797134 4457657 39.3
Mar 14616841 19237868 4621027 31.6
Apr 11243498 15928399 4684901 41.7
May 12090288 16847248 4756960 39.3
Jun 14757398 20733434 5976036 40.5
July 12312508 16478504 4165996 33.8
Aug 13622477 17635077 4012600 29.5
Sep 17402463 21440299 4037836 23.2
Oct 15260568 17269484 2008916 13.2
Nov 15687480 18395072 2707592 17.3
Dec 17151916 19438511 2286595 13.3
TOTAL 166425522 213026836 46601314 28.0
The data shows a "banner" year where bottom line sales went from 166+B to 213+B, a gain of over 46+B year over year, or 28 percent.
Now let's look at 2005 compared to 2004
- ACTUAL MONTHLY SALES(1,000s)
- PCT
- 2004 2005 DIFF CHG
Jan 13825806 17305948 3480142 25.2
Feb 15797134 17222418 1425284 9.0
Mar 19237868 20549813 1311945 6.8
Apr 15928399 16621575 693176 4.4
May 16847248 16982507 135259 0.8
Jun 20733434 20270889 -462545 -2.2
July 16478504 16806651 328147 2.0
Aug 17635077 18685898 1050821 6.0
Sep 21440299 23179234 1738935 8.1
Oct 17269484 18308124 1038640 6.0
Nov 18395072 19732889 1337817 7.3
Dec 19438511 21818191 2379680 12.2
TOTAL 213026836 227484137 14457301 6.8
Bottom line yearly gain was 14+B or 6.8 percent compared to the 28 percent of the previous year.
Now we can look at the comparison of the first 4 months of 06 compared to 05.
- ACTUAL MONTHLY SALES(1,000s)
- PCT
- 2005 2006 DIFF CHG
Jan 17305948 17395092 89144 0.5
Feb 17222418 18556818 1334400 7.7
Mar 20549813 23107722 2557909 12.4
Apr 16621575 17135347 513772 3.1
May 16982507
Jun 20270889
July 16806651
Aug 18685898
Sep 23179234
Oct 18308124
Nov 19732889
Dec 21818191
TOTAL 227484137 76194979 4495225
SIA Forecst 245455380 7.9
S&P Forecst 254782230 12.0
Thru Apr71699754 76194979 4495225 6.3
Bottom line, sales to date are 4+B or plus 6.3 percent compared to 05. At the beginning of the year, SIA was forecasting a 7.9 percent gain for 05, so at the moment, sales are running slightly below that figure. Incidentally, SIA has stated they will release an updated yearly forecast next Wednesday, 7 June. So far, S&P has been more bullish with a 12 percent forecast increase. |
