Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 217.53

+1.5%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: combjelly who wrote (200316)	6/3/2006 9:12:30 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (3) of 275872

>> Having to swap out P4 with NGA in Q3 and Q4 would have a major, major impact. The entire Intel deferred revenue line at end of q1 is $670m. At end of '04, it was $590m, which I'll consider normal. That's approx one week of shipments. So the excess (above normal) is $80m. How much are NGMA shipments in q3 supposed to be 30% ? If Intel's revenue in q3 is $9B, and processor-related is $7B, NGMA portion will be $2B. So the older chips will continue to be sold. in an amount that is 8x the amount that is subject to return. Even if inventory in the channel was multiples of "returnable" inventory, all of it would be consumed in the course of a normal quarter. If in fact Intel shipments dropped 20% in April, then most of the inventory overhang is gone by now.

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