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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures

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To: Real Man who wrote (11488)	6/4/2006 11:01:21 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) of 12410

>>Are you sure<< There are no absolute certainties in the financial markets, such as, "I think (or I rebel), therefore I exist." However, after the quick decline which began in May, a slow, halting and grinding advance is likely in store for a while. I have no axe to grind. I just call it the way I see it. I couldn't care less which way these markets move as long as I'm on the right side of the trade. I'm 70% in cash and 30% long. So, I'm just playing the rally modestly here. A few mouse clicks could change all that and make me short in a flash. Isn't technology just wonderful? -g- >>We'll get short on a break of 1250-1257 range for SP next week. We'll remain long otherwise.<< Who is the "we" here? I ask because I know the "we" has its own way to be and to trade. Perhaps you are speaking from the point of view of the "spiral"? As you can see, I'm not a big fan of the "we". The "we" represents the consensus view of these markets and "they" are dead wrong at turning points. I'm sure you've noticed that some PermaBears are even going so far as to suggest that the current environment is similar to the one that preceded the infamous crash of 1987. I find that analogy faulty (to say the least) as interest rates on the 10-year note were about 10% as opposed to 5% now. The market also came off a huge year, rising 40%, and earnings had basically shown no growth for three years in a row. The major indices here haven’t had gains even approaching those levels, and earnings have been growing at a double digit clip for three years.

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