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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures

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To: Real Man who wrote (11491)	6/5/2006 10:20:34 AM
From: Rarebird	of 12411

>>I just think we could be in a secular bear market.<< We are in a bear market. Just compare the S@P 500 Index to a neutral currency, Gold, over the past few years and you'll see that that is the case. Of course, most people will rationalize that this massive loss of value doesn't matter to them because they pay their bills in US Dollars. The decline in the USD has been a big cushion which has masked the drop in value of the US stock market in recent months. If the dollar continues to decline, the entire bear market is likely to represent only a minor 10% correction in stocks. Although I'm short term bullish, this is a countertrend, or bear market rally. Those kind of rallies can collapse quickly as the main trend reassets itself. My bet is that we grind higher through June expiration making those puts expire. I'll let you know when I see the main trend reassert itself. At the moment, I'm hiding out in AZN.

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