No prob jk, my pleasure : )
Looks like Micron had a poor earnings rpt after bell. Look out for tech tomorrow. At the moment I'm of the opinion:
1. Volatility may be here to stay.
2. I'm playing it: take the spikes, and begin to get out of some slow moving positions.
3. Buy some dips, but very carefully.
My MCIC is moving back up, and I want to break even there. Made a couple of bucks today on ASND.
CYMI may be the next play.
Just saw something good about QCOM. Looks like somebody had a target to:
STEPHEN K. VOSKO 09/23/97 (800) 664-0855
SOVEREIGN EQUITY MANAGEMENT, e-mail cv@vosko.com
The Intelligent Trader is designed for aggressive investors that want to
combine high returns with strong risk management. To accomplish this, I have
deployed a hybrid strategy of selecting technically strong risk reward stock
picks with high return hedge strategies. This combination allows the investor
to obtain strong annualized returns on capital deployed with strong capital
gains. Aggressive investors can use these strategies for 100% annualized
returns and even the more cautious should be able to achieve 40%+ annualized
returns.
Commentary for September 23,1997
Qualcomm Inc.
I recommended Qualcomm as a trading buy on the 21st of August. My view was
that it would break above a downside gap that left resistance at $50 1/8. It
did so two days ago and appears set to make its move to $57. Qualcomm Inc.
develops, manufactures, markets, licenses and operates advanced communication
systems and products based on digital wireless technology. The company that
is a leader in CDMA technology worldwide has the capacity to deliver 1
million chip-sets and 500,000 digital communicators a month. The company has
picked up some large international contracts from Russia and India as well as
benefiting from the expansion of digital wireless systems in North America.
The Q-Phone has seen very strong demand. Next quarter look for the company to
earn $0.37 and $1.12 for the full year. I hope you we listening!!! The price
has been running strongly since it broke above the neckline of an inverted
head and shoulders. The stock has come to test the last major resistance
before testing its a two year high. If the price can close above $56 5/8, it
will move up to test the $63 top. There is still approximately 7 million
shares short on the issue; very little of it can be from above these levels.
If the price continues higher many of these shorts will be getting those
nasty-grams, otherwise known as margin calls.
RECOMMENDATION
If you are still holding your position, then hold to see if the price can
break through the $56 5/8. If it does then either buy back the calls written
or buy stock to replenish the position. The next target is $63. If the $56
5/8 resistance holds firm and the price cannot breakthrough it, exit all your
positions. If the stock fails here it will be the third time. I would look
for a fall all the way back to the $45 area; at least all the way down to $50
1/8. I would clearly use no lower than $50 as a stop-loss. As an alternative,
once the position is clean from the call hedge, buy the October $50 puts (QAQ
VJ) for less than $0.50. This is a small price to pay for downside insurance
to near the time of the earnings release. Personally I prefer to have the
position unencumbered near a target point. If the price breaks through
resistance at $56 5/8, there will be time to set hedges to protect the new
support level. If the price fails here, as I recommended above, I would exit
the position completely. Currently, if the position had the October $50/55
strangle(the $50 put and the $55 call), the strangle should have been sold
for about $5 on September 1. It would cost approximately $3.50 to buy it
back; adding $1.50 to the profit made on the underlying stock. If you put the
position on at September 1, your acquisition price was below $48. At present
levels that is a 17% gain on the stock alone and, with the option profit, it
is 20% gain in three weeks.
I've talked to Steve Vosko months ago re Micron, but I think his rec may have panned out due to an up market.
Best wishes
The Usual Big Disclaimer |
