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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 214.11+3.9%Nov 26 3:59 PM EST
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To: pgerassi who wrote (200577)6/6/2006 8:12:50 AM
From: Sarmad Y. HermizRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
Dear Pete,

I don't think your expectations will become actual.

re >> They will not sell $15 worth of non NGA inventory before NGA becomes dominant. Their stupid pre release benchmarks have done that.

Of people I know personally, 4 bought Intel D930 and D820 computers in the past week even though I told them better machines were coming in 3 months. reason ? They needed them now. And the price was right.

There will be some deferred sales, but not to the extent you expect.

Processor unit sales will be at least 60m this quarter. let's say not one single Intel chip will be sold until every Opteron, Athlon and Turion is spoken for. How many is that 6m units ? Do you think Semprons will sell ahead of anything except Celerons ?

But even if every AMD chip sells before any Intel, AMD chips would have been totally sold out in the first week of each month, and Intel would be getting monopoly prices for the rest of the month.

Anyway, You've stated your expectation clearly. We'll have the reports in mid July. We'll see whether Intel's ASP actually falls to 2/3 ($100) for Q2, and $75 for Q3.

For my expectation, they will not. Maybe 10% drop in ASP due to Intel's mix shifting downward in Q2. Stable after that. And AMD's mix dropping in q3 and beyond, due to factors that Doug and eracer have stated.

Sarmad
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