Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 214.11

+3.9%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (200581)	6/6/2006 1:30:46 PM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (3) of 275872

Dear Sarmad: Of course AMD will sell 13m or more units in Q2 but, Q2 sales won't approach 60m units. Q2 is the slowest quarter of the year. It averages 50m units and with some delayed, it might not even get that much. So Intel may sell less than 35 million units. Add to that the mere fact that they need a revenue of $6.0 billion from CPUs to breakeven and you start to see the problem. And remember that the OEM inventory keeps prices low. At a 30 million rate, it'll last almost a full quarter. Now AMD is fine and Intel is down to a couple of billion in revenue with $7+ billion in expenses. Do you realize that means Intel will lose its entire cash and short term investment horde in one quarter? That if such a situation began, OEMs would ask AMD to double or triple its output? Given a one quarter lead, AMD could make enough Semprons to double its output to 25-30 million units? In two quarters, they could get enough from Chartered and Fabs 30 & 36 to make 40-50 million CPUs? Think about how many 70-80mm2 CPUs can be made from 30K 200mm wafers and 10K 300mm wafers from Fab 36 and 20K 300mm wafers from Chartered per month? What yield would be needed for all of that to supply all 60m CPUs you say are needed per quarter? The only reason that AMD says they can supply 50% by 2008 is the increase in size of the average die to 150mm2. AMD could easily pay for Fab 38 in just one quarter and Fab 40 in the next. As far as what Doug and Eracer have stated, their arguments hold little water. Intel has already conceeded that with the expansion of the layoffs and cutting of money losing operations. If anything, AMD's mix will richen and their volume will increase. Intel's ASPs have already dropped 10% in Q4 and another 15% in Q1. The trend is for the ASPs to drop another 20% in Q2. Just wait about five weeks for the Q2 CCs. You will see just how big a pickle Intel is in. That benchmark stunt cost them a couple of billion in profit alone. Pete

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next