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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (188612)6/7/2006 1:06:36 AM
From: Wharf Rat  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
They can't predict the weather two weeks from now, and you're telling me there have precisely predicted world temperature a century from now?

We Can't Even Predict the Weather Next Week
(Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic guide)

Objection:
Scientists can't even predict the weather next week, so why should we believe what some climate model tells us about 100 years from now.

This is a very common line and might even be sincere if presented from someone completely ignorant of the difference between climate and weather. Usually it is more of a childish taunt, only one step above name calling. Just remember that the only chance the denialists have is if they can bring you down to a very low level of debate.

Answer:
Climate and weather are really very different things and the level of predictability is comparably different. Think of it as the difference between trying to predict the height of the fifth wave from now that will come splashing up the beach versus predicting the height of tomorrow's high tide.

Climate is defined as weather averaged over a period of time, generally around 30 years. This averaging over time removes the random and unpredictable behaviour of weather. This by no means says that it is necessarily easy to predict climate changes, but clearly siezing on the weather man's one week failure to cast doubt on a climate model's 100 year projection is an argument of ignorance.

illconsidered.blogspot.com
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