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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (188624)6/7/2006 1:15:38 AM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
"Human activities ... are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents ... that absorb or scatter radiant energy. ... [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" [p. 21 in (4)].


Leaving aside the respected climatologists who have not signed onto the IPCC report, may I suggest that it's a BIG JUMP from noting that an increase in greenhouse gases is responsible for most of the warming in the last 50 years (that's less than 1 degree celsius if I remember correctly) to predictions that the polar ice caps are melting and the sea is gonna rise 20 feet, run for the hills! which is what Al Gore is saying.

To predict future temperature, you need a working model of the climate feedback loops (eg will an increased temperature increase or decrease the presence of water vapor in the atmosphere? This is important to know, since water vapor is the main greenhouse gas). There is no consensus about the right predictive model to use.
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