Given how back end loaded Q2 is (50% in June), together with multiple analyst reports on AMD price cuts & inventories from back in May, I think a miss is about 90% likely, assuming we interpret "slightly down" to be the usual -3% or so.
With "odds" like that, you really should buy those July AMD puts instead of January. Talk is cheap.
A quarter can be especially back-end loaded when you've got products people don't want to buy and have to cut price to make it. AMD said at their January CC that they were sold out for Q1. In other words, they were taking orders for April, at least, in January, and then had February, March, April, May, and June to accumulate enough orders for the rest of Q2. You're just whistling past the P4 graveyard.
Will Intel sell at least $8 billion as they've said? They probably won't even know themselves until the 4th of July. And will they wind up in the red? If not Q2, it's coming soon. The longer it drags out, the better for AMD.
You do the thread a great service as a contrary indicator:
You buy AMD April 40 calls: sell AMD at 40.
You buy Intel 08 25 calls (bid is currently at life-of-contract low): sell INTC at any price.
You buy AMD 07 25 puts: buy AMD and start writing short-term out-of-the-money covered calls, ephud-style. Ca-ching, ca-ching, ca-ching! |
