<<... fixed by a lower USD making imports more expensive, so domestic manufacturers, cars especially, can gain market share and unit volume>>
... unlikely, because the ex-factory price for Japan-owned car parts manufactured in China vs retail price (embedded in cars) of same in USA is anywhere between 1/10 to 1/5, and so devaluation of USD will not revive car parts manufacturing in USA by any remote stretch of the imagination.
It is exceedingly unlikely that any USA resident person will be making socks and bras anytime soon, at least not by action of exchange rate shift or tariff rise (tariff is on ex-factory price, so that 27.5 or even 100% tariff is of no consequence to production shift, practically speaking).
I think, still, terrible asset depression and horrible living cost hyper inflation will be.
Given that 50+% of corporate profit, in the aggregate, are financial economy derived, reasoning goes that the 50% can dry up in a leveraged hurry if liquidity drug actually dry up; then there is housing, and defense, etc ... |
