California's message: Immigration, ethics will be key midterm themes
DEL MAR, California (CNN) -- Immigration and ethics will be key themes of November's midterm elections, say the winner and loser of a special election to replace a jailed former California congressman.
As President Bush's approval ratings have dropped dramatically in voter polls, Democrats see the midterms as an opportunity to regain control of Congress and Republicans are distancing themselves from the president.
Republican Brian Bilbray, who on Tuesday won the 50th District House seat held by convicted former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham, said opposing Bush on immigration turned his campaign around. (Watch why California sends a national political signal -- 5:46)
"The president proposing amnesty was absolutely a big problem," Bilbray said. "In fact, it wasn't until I was able to highlight the fact that I did not agree with my friends in the Senate or my friend in the White House on amnesty that you really saw the polls start supporting me strongly."
A bill backed by Bush and passed by the Senate would create a guest worker program and a "path to citizenship" for illegal immigrants living in the United States that House conservatives say amounts to amnesty.
Bush is traveling the nation this week promoting both that bill and compromise talks between the Senate and the House. A House bill passed in December establishes stronger punishments for illegal immigrants. (Full story)
Bilbray's Democratic challenger Francine Busby ran a relatively strong race, with late returns showing Bilbray with 49 percent to her 45 percent.
In 2004, Bush carried more than 55 percent of the vote in the district, and Cunningham won more than 58 percent.
Despite her defeat, Busby claimed a moral victory in a Republican stronghold which lost its congressman in a bribery scandal.
"We're sending a message for all of us that we need a government that works for us, not for special interests," Busby said. "People are fed up with the direction that we're going in. I think this is a message that will resonate across the country."
Cunningham, an eight-term veteran of Congress who's now serving an eight-year prison sentence, pleaded guilty last year to taking more than $2 million in bribes in a criminal conspiracy involving at least three defense contractors.
Bilbray's victory likely gives him an advantage over Busby in November when the two opponents will square off again to win a full two-year term.
Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg said Bilbray's win should not be viewed as a sign that Democrats have no chance of taking back control of Congress.
"On the one hand there is clearly relief and a sense of hope for Republicans in November," Rothenberg said. "On the other hand, they have got to be concerned about the Republican drop off and Democrats have got to figure they are still headed for a good year."
Democratic wave?
Republicans immediately sought to dampen any speculation about a forthcoming Democratic wave and suggested that House races are not subject to national moods.
"National Democrats did not discover their shockwave in San Diego," National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Reynolds declared in a statement released by his office Wednesday morning. "National Democrats must come to terms with the fact that momentum for the midterm elections will not materialize simply because they preordain it in the media or because they ask their special interest friends to buy it for them.
"The results in San Diego show that nothing has happened to alter the notion that House elections are about a choice between local personalities focused on local issues," Reynolds added.
Democrats echoed Rothenberg's point that Bilbray performed poorly in a reliably Republican district.
"In an election cycle that is shaping up to be a change vs. the status quo contest, Francine Busby has shown that a strong change message can make even former members of Congress vulnerable in deeply red Republican districts," Sarah Feinberg, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told CNN. "After spending more than $5 million, using national Republican leaders like George Bush, John McCain and Laura Bush, and running hugely negative ads, Brian Bilbray and the NRCC were able to pull out less than 50 percent of the vote in a very solidly Republican district."
Burns survives challenge
Another GOP lawmaker ensnared in ethics troubles, Sen. Conrad Burns of Montana, faced voters Tuesday, winning a challenge for renomination over three Republican rivals, according to projections by The Associated Press.
Five Democrats vied for the right to take on Burns in November, with state Senate President Jon Tester winning the nomination.
Burns, one of the Democrats' top targets in the fall, has come under fire for accepting contributions from disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, who has pleaded guilty to corruption charges. But the senator insists he did nothing wrong and has vowed a vigorous fight for re-election. (Full story)
CNN's John King and Mark Preston contributed to this report.
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