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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: redfrecknj who wrote (63006)6/7/2006 5:55:40 PM
From: gregor_us  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
IMO, the USD will dutifully strengthen a little on Hawk Talk and actual hikes, and will dutifully weaken on Pause Talk and actual pauses.

But I am contrarian on the matter of what the USD ultimately does, in the face of whatever sustained FED policy we get. To wit: if the FED for example does keep tightening into a slowing economy and we go into recession, that will be curtains for the dollar. In contrast, avoidance of recession is *mildly* dollar supportive.

I'm pretty much contra The Textbook on what happens to the dollar going forward, bascially, because in the textbook there's no mention of the aggregate public and private debt.

Rate Hikes into a recession puts the Debt in to play. It's akin to Calling the Loan.

LP
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