Pessimists at EIA strike back
Posted by Stuart Staniford on Wednesday June 07, 2006 at 11:28 PM EST
The EIA's International Petroleum Monthly came out on Monday, but I was out of town so didn't get to updating the plateau graphs until tonight (I build them in part out of the EIA's table 1.4, and in part from the IEA's monthly Oil Market Reports). You'll recall that last time the IEA's optimism about March, and even more heady optimism about April, was causing the moving average graph to lean up a little in the plateau.
The EIA is less excited about March - only around 84.0mbpd, down 400kbpd from February. This also casts doubt on the IEA's April figure, I think, but we'll see in a few days.
Average daily oil production, by month, from various estimates. Click to enlarge. Believed to be all liquids. Graph is not zero-scaled. Source: IEA, and EIA. The IEA raw line is what they initially state each month. The IEA corrected line is calculated from the month-on-month production change quoted the following month.
Here's the graph of the average of the two with moving averages. It has flattened a shade in light of the latest data point.
Average daily oil production, by month, averaged from estimates by the EIA and IEA, together with 13 month centered moving average, and recursed moving average of the moving average. The last data point in the monthly data is from the IEA's preliminary estimate alone, and the moving average windows are reduced at the graph edges to only include the data that exists. The squares represent the last point on the correspondingly covered curve where the entire window has full data. Believed to be all liquids. Graph is not zero-scaled. Click to enlarge. Source: IEA, and EIA.
I also draw your attention to this interesting piece at Econbrowser, where Professor Hamilton joins those of us wondering why the Saudi's are claiming they can't find customers so they have to throttle back production when prices have not gone down.
For graphs and an interesting discussion, see link.
theoildrum.com
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The EIA's Short Term Energy Report, which came out Tuesday:
eia.doe.gov
It does not give estimates for the whole world but they do for OPEC (Table 3a). Their estimates for OPEC for April and May, are even more pessimistic than their estimate for March:
eia.doe.gov
[ Reply to This ]
[new] RUbytheshore on Thursday June 08, 2006 at 9:26 AM EST
According to the link:
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The U.S. Energy Administration revised downward its count of Saudi Arabian crude oil production in April and estimates the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries produced 29.335 million barrels a day in May.
The revision by the EIA, the statistical and analysis wing of the Department of Energy, comes one day after the disclosure of a decrease in Saudi Arabian oil output in The Wall Street Journal. In an interview, Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi said the world's No. 1 oil producer pumped 9.1 million b/d in April. Last month, the EIA said Saudi Arabia produced 9.6 million b/d in April.
In this month's Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said Saudi Arabia produced 9.2 million b/d in both April and May. The April cut to estimates for Saudi Arabia accounted for the downward revisions to April estimates for OPEC with and without Iraq. |
