I have to agree with Mark on this one. I think the near-term outlook is anything but smooth, and the stock could fail to hold at the $30 level. The reasons are simple:
(1) for the stock to rebound, there simply has to be more demand for the shares than there is supply offered. However
(2) A lot of people have made a lot of money as the stockprice went from $9 + change to $90 +, and those people have a lot of incentive to take profits,
(3) There is a lot of confusion right now about what the numbers mean
in terms of EPS growth rates for the next year, even among the people on this list, some of whom I have a lot more faith in than I do analysts.
(4) Right now, the stock is about the most volatile investment vehicle in any securities market, and that alone will scare a lot of potential buyers away, and finally
(5) The Cymer people right now have a very bad track record with PR and information release. We are all hoping for a lot of clarification tomorrow. If there is any vagueness on their part, Mark is right; you can expect more analysts to downgrade the stock and it will get waxed each time that happens.
I don't know if there is any market manipulation here on the part of Montgomery and some short sellers - Montgomery is allowed to voice its opinion (although it is not allowed to float false rumors.) I just think that right now things are kind of uphill for this particular stock price, and that the only thing that will calm the market's jitters is hard and fast earnings numbers, which will take time.
Good luck to all of us. I'm expecting a margin call from Ceres any time now! :-(
Jess
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