Date: Fri Jun 09 2006 12:22
trotsky (here we go...) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
yet another drubbing in the works. we tested the broken trendline ( XAU ) from below today, and the test apparently failed ( or succeeded, depending on your PoV ) .
Date: Fri Jun 09 2006 12:18
trotsky (Hambone@Bernanke) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
oh, i agree with that absolutely. even it weren't him ( a certified monetary crank ) , that's all that's left to do for a Fed chairman these days: bluff.
they simply can't afford to 'do a Volcker' , since the debtberg couldn't possibly withstand it.
Date: Fri Jun 09 2006 12:11
trotsky (Hambone) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
well, steeper yield curves and crises of confidence often go hand in hand - after all, the Fed needs a good reason to ease up. note though that if such a crisis involves the stock market, bullion may well rise, but gold stocks will fall anyway ( see 1987 for an example ) . otoh, if it's a currency crisis, the stock market may well attract funds, such as happened in the latter stages of the Argentine crisis. stocks were suddenly seen as a way of preserving buying power in the face of the currency collapse ( buying stocks was also one of the few ways to get money out of the banks ) .
Date: Fri Jun 09 2006 11:59
trotsky (Hambone@market correlations) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
there's no way gold or gold stocks can decouple from the stock market when they're both rising and falling for the same reason ( perceptions about liquidity ) . a decoupling will imo only happen once the yield curve begins to steepen, signaling an easier Fed. that in turn probably requires more of a stock market drubbing than what we've seen thus far. we're exactly in the opposite corner of the sweet spot right now.
Date: Fri Jun 09 2006 11:50
trotsky (looks like) ID#248269:
market confidence continues to be AWOL.
Date: Fri Jun 09 2006 11:27
trotsky (WilE@Negroponte) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
it's essentially one more police state measure.
very convenient when you can hide your misdeeds by slapping the 'national security' label on just about anything.
they stopped basically all investigations into the admin's illegal activities that way.
interestingly, around the time Mr. N. was ambassador in Baghdad, the Shi'ite and Sunnite death squadron tit-for-tat killing spree began to really take off. no doubt the experience from his Latin American postings came in handy in that regard. if there is a devil, this guy is one of his representatives on earth.
Date: Fri Jun 09 2006 11:07
trotsky (JD@ the Rand) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
well, all kidding aside, that's a chart that needs to be watched especially carefully now. i take it as a bellwether of the state of the carry trade if you will, a report card on the health of leveraged speculation in emerging markets and commodities alike. right now it's dancing around a very imporant support/resistance level - the 6.80-7 region shows up in all time frames from quarterly to daily. breaking that would be pretty nasty - but so far this is the level that has held since August of '04, so it may well hold once again.
Date: Fri Jun 09 2006 10:55
trotsky (JD@the Rand) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
i did it on purpose - i knew it would turn as soon as i mentioned it. : )
note though that this rebound could well be the C wave of a running correction - if so, then i haven't saved any bacons. i'm mentioning this just to be safe...
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