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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers

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To: Gib Bogle who wrote (13043)	6/9/2006 10:00:30 PM
From: E. Charters	Read Replies (2) of 78417

What we do know is that if someone hits 600 feet of gold at 4 - 24 grams per tonne, and he has a PhD, the probability that the stock will go to 19 dollars is excellent. If a high school graduate hits a large body of gold which they will not reveal the grade of, but promotes it excellently, the insiders will make 30 dollars a share, almost assuredly. (Pierina) I am not sure how to calculate the probability of Strata Gold, Sacre Coeur or Everton, accurately (If I could I would quit my day job right f.. now) but I am sure it is up there around 30 to 60 percent somewhere. Worth betting on. If enough of a herd is trading on a toilet-seat volatile stock, then stats and probs are a good way to approach it. (Shannon, Bernstein etc) Camarilla is based on stat levels and the principle that a stock tends to move in a trend most like yesterday's moves. You could make yesterday a longer period if you want to look further out. Stats and probs would probably work well then. Few people think that Skylar will become a 15 dollar stock. This is why I think it has excellent chances. Few people are often right about the market. (The others are probably correct if they think they should not trade stocks.) I wish I knew all the time what some people were long on. If I could find out surreptitiously, I could make a pile of dough on shorts. It's like the goats. If you land on the door first, then it is 66% chance you are on a goat. Once the other door is opened, it is always a goat of course, so automatically to switch from a 66% chance-space (that you are not on a Cadillac) you must be switching to a 66% chance you do get a Cadillac. Ergo the 100% fallibility hypothesis would be useful. (If the MC picks a goat first, he spoils it and you are back to 50-50. Why? Because he could pick "your" 66% goat.. which spoils the "switching chance.")

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