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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: lwd who wrote (2565)	9/23/1997 1:27:00 AM
From: Vector1	of 9719

<<Regarding Incyte, would you buy it at these levels? I was able to pick up some more GZTC, but am also interested in more of it. Do you still like it at current levels? Is 30 still your limit for AFFX? Any hope of it dropping back there?>> Tough questions. I have always found it psychologically difficult to buy more of a stock I already own after it has run up. INCY, GZTC and AFFX are three of the best long term plays I know of. Agruably it doesn't matter much if you buy them a little to high although that is a lot easier to say than be comfortable with. Also we may be at the begining of a major biotech rally. It is about time. OK I won't duck the question anymore. On GZTC I would wait for the Third Q financials to come out. If the revs on the CRO business are slowing it might back up a few points and it would be a great time to buy more. I will. I wouldn't wait long though as I think a number of new collaberations will be announced over the next year. AFFX is due for a little pullback. Its pattern has been a large gain followed by a pullback of about 50% of the gain. I would increase my entr point to 35. What has changed on AFFX . Well the Roche deal breaks new ground. In addition, AFFX's value will not be unlocked until companies like INCY, HGSI,Millenium and others unlock the function of the genes which are the culprit of many major diseases. Then AFFX's gene chip will become an indespensible diagnostic tool. The risks are patent litigation and some tecnology we don't know of yet. I would buy INCY if it pulls back into the mid 70s. It may not. Their data base is without equal and the future royalties on therapuedics that result from their partnerships will be an absolute goldmine someday. Other companies that are great long term plays are DURA, LGND and SEPR. V1

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