<How do others see things in the next little while (3-6 months)? Is it just about picking the right stocks (as so far been this year), or is it finally going to be about the sector?>
I think stockpickers can do well in a bear market, such as by being in ARU and area plays or OSK or MXAM.OB (not discussed on this thread but up 71% Fri).
Overall, though, I think the low is coming in the next 2 weeks for miners, followed by the low in gold and silver by early July. I am still holding GDX, GG, NG Puts and the naked calls I wrote for $260 ea contract on HUI 370 went no-bid late in the week.
I think the Fed pause or indication of pause at end June will trigger a 1-2 month market rally, followed by another slump in Sept as the housing-triggered slowdown winds its way into the market. I think the S&P will go sideways to Fed decision end of June.
I think USD tried to hit Nov high (92 on USD index), so I am positioned in a USD Bull fund to capture this short-term move.
I think the Treasury rally will similarly wane, and while playing TLT (and the Canadian equivalent XBB.TO) has been a good play, I'm not sure it lasts more than a month.
CRB could fall lower, one way I have been playing this is to short XMA.TO.
I could be wrong though.
Message 22461360
Buying out of the money June Puts on the miners when I wrote that yielded returns of 100-700%. |
